Genealogy Chat

I am sure the following is boring, but I had nothing better to do until teatime.


From the days when I attended my seat of lower learning.

“There are three sorts of liars: Liars, damned liars and statisticians.”

So I am sure that someone will counter my analysis…..But please don’t call me a liar.
Canada is much larger than the UK but has a smaller population; even now. However, in considering cousins one needs to go back a bit. To a time when there was less immigration. So I choose the 1940’s – mainly because the numbers were easy to find.

Canada about 11MM http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/canada-population/

UK about 47MM http://ww2db.com/country/united_kingdom

The 1 in 2200 statement reads as 0.045% chance of walking past someone who is related. Which for me means related by DNA. And, as Kense states, DNA reduces by 50% each generation.

With 3.125% for g3gp’s, going back a further six generations gets the DNA down to 0.049%. Thus fairly close at g9gp’s.

On one paternal line I have managed to get to g10gp’s. And on one maternal line to g12gp’s. On other lines I have brick walls well before those 1600’s folk.

ASSUMING someone has found all of their sets of g9gp’s.
AND assuming that all of those sets had at least one other child (ie not direct line).
AND assuming that each of those survived to adulthood, married and had at least two children.
Etc., etc., etc.
Then how many current generation relatives might that someone have? And compare that number to the total population.

PS Reason for stating two children was just to hold the population steady……….
:-D :-D

Personally, I don't count anyone who is more distant than 1st cousin twice removed as being related. If I don't know them they don't count!

Some one who shares the same genes?
I would have thought the chance would be greater, ie 1:1000 or simliar in the British Isle, simply because we are far 'older' than Canada.

1 in 2200 is a cousin is a Canadian statistic - I've no knowledge of the UK value
http://www.torontosun.com/2015/12/14/is-that-you-cuz-good-chance-a-complete-stranger-is-your-relative